Five Predictions for the Next Five Years

Post on 15 December 2021 by Mattias Ljungman & Akshat Goenka

We are inspired about what lies ahead for us at Moonfire and in the wider world. To give you a sense of our thinking for the future, we have written up our predictions for the next five years. We don't claim to have the power of prophecy but we hope each of our predictions inspires you to imagine what the future holds as you head off for the holiday period. Let's check back in on how we did in five years' time!

1. Tens of millions of people will earn a living through gameplay, blurring the line between work and play even further. Despite the potential danger of intense government regulation, at least one crypto-native, community-centric game will have an economy larger than the market cap of the largest gaming company. Today, crypto games like Axie Infinity and Sorare financialise fun and bring together numerous financial and non-financial stakeholders within their gaming network. But they are just scratching the surface of GameFi. If you’re interested in crypto gaming, we’ve done a deep dive blog post that you can read here.

2. DeFi will completely reset power dynamics of the current global financial structures by testing the traditional banks' ability to provide high quality products in a cost-effective manner. Hence, traditional banks will either innovate/adapt or will face commoditisation of their offering with diminishing margins over time. As scalability gets solved, decentralisation loses its stigma and attractive yield farming becomes accessible, there will be broad mainstream adoption. DeFi will also get deeper government support and at least one fiat currency will transition to or be mirrored by a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).

3. Virtual healthcare will become commonplace, with over 25% of current total spend and interactions happening through digital/telehealth services (currently <5%). While the recent uptick was borne out of necessity ensuing from the COVID pandemic, digital health will penetrate deeper into all parts of the healthcare process as providers and patients accept that virtual care pathways can maintain (if not improve) efficacy while augmenting accessibility and efficiency. We will witness a growth in specialty/condition-specific virtual-first health plans along with hospital-at-home and e-triage solutions.

4. Everyone will be a 'creator' to some extent. We will move away from mandating standardisation (gig economy) to valuing and monetising our uniqueness. Creation will continue to have a strong, recurring return profile. This 'enterprisation' of the consumer will have a big effect on the delivery of work. The supply chain of talent is littered with middlemen and contractors who will now become obsolete as creators connect directly with their audience through smart contracts, decentralisation and social tokens. This will also empower long-tail creators to break through the mould and monetise deeply.

5. Virtual reality will finally become viable and widely used. Despite the efforts of Microsoft and Meta, Apple will make a major splash in the XR world as it aims to keep people hooked on its vertically integrated ecosystem. Apple (perhaps alone) has the hardware capabilities and the developer ecosystem to do so. These platforms will create walled-garden metaverses to retain customers but will face strong rifts with decentralised projects.

It is always fun imagining the future and we hope you enjoyed our glimpse into it. As we move into the holiday period, we would like to thank you for all of your support in what is an incredible time in European venture and wish you a very happy holiday. 

If you like our thoughts and vision of the future please subscribe here for more in depth views.

🌓🔥

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